Brazilians will cast their votes in a divisive presidential runoff election on Sunday between an incumbent who pledges to uphold traditional Christian values and a former leader who vows to take the nation back to a more affluent era.
President Jair Bolsonaro and his political foe, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, were in a tight race going into the runoff. Both are well-known, polarizing political leaders that arouse both rage and hatred.
The outcome of the vote will decide whether the fourth-largest democracy in the world continues down its current path of far-right politics or elects a leftist to the position of president — and, in the latter scenario, whether Bolsonaro will concede defeat.
Brazilians are expected to cast more than 120 million ballots, but because the vote is handled electronically, the results are often made public shortly after voting stations shut in the late afternoon. The majority of polls had da Silva, also known as Lula, in the lead, although political analysts concurred that the race has become more competitive recently.
As he stoked nostalgia for his 2003–2010 presidency, when Brazil’s economy was thriving and welfare helped tens of millions enter the middle class, it seemed as though da Silva would win easily for months.
But on the Oct. 2 first-round elections, da Silva received 48% of the votes, while Bolsonaro received 43%, demonstrating that surveys substantially overestimated the president’s support.
In Brazil, the winner of the first round usually prevails in the second round. However, according to political analyst Rodrigo Prando, a Bolsonaro victory cannot be ruled out because of how unusual this campaign has been. The three most populous state governors gave their support to the president, and associated candidates for congress won handily.
Bolsonaro is more powerful politically than many had anticipated, according to Prando, a professor at Sao Paulo’s Mackenzie Presbyterian University. In terms of mathematics, Lula is ahead.
Twelve other gubernatorial races, including those for Sao Paulo, the state of Amazonas, and the northern Bahia state, will also be decided.
More than 150 million Brazilians are eligible to vote, yet in the first round, around 20% of voters did not cast a ballot. After the Supreme Court
