Republicans should be feeling pleased with three weeks and one day to the conclusion of the 2022 midterm elections. Polls have been trending in their favor for the last month, and Democrats’ September momentum, which was exaggerated from the start, has evaporated.
Will it, however, remain that way?
A month ago, Democrats had a huge 2.4-point lead in an average of credible surveys on which party people favored to dominate Congress after the next elections. That margin was gone by the end of last week, except for two-tenths of a point. We are interested in these data because they are directionally informative rather than precisely predictive of how the House and Senate elections will turn out. And the trend continues to favor the GOP.
So, what caused the shift, and will it continue in the same direction?
